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ROBERTO JBILI SPECIAL FINANCIAL MARKETS INSIGHT & MEDIUM TERM OPPORTUNITIES MINI RESEARCH

As we noted in our past CAD/USD analysis that commodities cycle has 2 parts, one or first part is on the upside and 2 is in the downside, First part which was the basis of the bull market as a whole via commodities bull market cycle made the price of oil up from 30 $ Avg to 150 $ a barrel, the 2 part which is the bear market of same cycle and create the bear financial markets as a whole sine financial markets are commodities cycle, the part via bear market will bring prices from 150$ to 30$ avg again, speculation of value will put it under 20$.

We note that each bear market has rally, we expect the the 2 part of commodities cycle which will be the bear market will have 2 bear market rally one of them is happening now:

A- 1ST bear market rally will drive the oil from 30 $ lows to top of 90 levels, close to 100 $ test this may be reached in August 2009, The downside will follow the upside making the the downfall from 100 to below 30 and even below 20$ levels, this will close first bear market rally, the downside may take from Sep 2009 to March-April 2010.

B- 2ST From April - May 2010 Oil after downside to 20 $ and even 17$ will average for 30$ possible for June, July, Aug 2010 with a rally to 65 $ 2 bear market rally will be closed, the downside of Oil from 66$ to below 17$ will close the commodities cycle, this may be between December 2010 an spring of 2011 When Iran War will Start.

Actual Bear Market rally as observed is lead by Oil Price and Oil sector at first place, The rally in bear market of stocks which is reflection of commodities cycle 2 part or bears, will drive stocks of all commodities higher and Dow with possibilty of 10.000 to 11.000 levels, starting from Sep 2009 Stocks will go down but some money will put in Technology stocks or will be moved to build positions in tech sector stocks in Sep 2009, this confirm that markets downside will be limited to 6 months or to march 2010, and confirm that NASDAQ many move little beat higher before 2 bear market rally, the NASDAQ move indicate and wellcome the technology cycle and closing the commodities one via downside of 2 bear market rally, Tech stock building demand indicate rally of tech stocks after 6 months.

If the Iran war will not be motivated by an bankrupty of large empire like Citi, since Lehman failed in 2008, The motivation may be an terrorist attack in size of 11 Sep possible in London underground, after 1 st test in 2005 like 2001 NY attacks which closed the Tech cycle, if this will happen, UK will go to fight Russia in Iran in 2011.

The Iran war in 2011 will be similar to Afghanistan war if it will be motivated by terror attack and not bankruptcy, it will lead to another bankruptcy later in 2012-13 which will delete the Syrian regime and attack Syria like Iraq, Afg war was terror based lead to bankruptcy of worldCom which lead to Iraq War, Iran war may be if not motivated by Bankruptcy, terror based will lead to Syria regime change by power and large conflict between France and UK will lead to the third War, it will not be made by GE bankruptcy.

The year End Tech stocks demand is good to build or to but options to Sell later and to buy again, to prepare of the Tech Cycle frm the profits.

The movments of oil which is analyzed above will be indictor for many opportunities, when oil will go down from 98$ to 20% Airlines stocks will perform better than market Avg since markets will go down, Short to Oil Stocks like HAL and XOM as main players and all companies under them in size will have good return from Sep 2009 to March-June 2010, I dont think that Oil will call or pass 100 again until 2020-2022 or next cycle, Currencies will be the place to play, Goldf may be down to 300$ around Iran war and even to 200 when War will Start and during the war,Oil and options will be good to play.

The Currencies to play

The oil at 98$ test will close Euro latest high run to 2022, we will never see the levels hich Euro may reach until 2022, Euro may go up in line with oil to 1.52-155 levels,it will go down to 0.81 againest USD from this level, CAD will go lower to 0.90-0-95 closing last run before going to 1.60 levels, this 2 currencies will be indicator for ccurrency markets, replacing CAD with GBP, and having the Euro direction with Oil price Which indicate Gold and Metals movments from 2 eye, instead fron Gold having the Oil by first eye.

Notes to Stocks

The closing of commodities cycle and the opening of technology cycle will create value to invest, like buying Google at low or PC and Net, Software stocks which will perform the best ion next tech cycle and Telecom will underperform like intel case in last Bull market, this lows with stock markets lows before war uncertainty to start will provide serious money to build. Yahoo may reach 100 to 400$, Google may reah 2000$ during next tech boom which possibly will be closed by by third war.

Google Strategy similar to Buffett, having same stocks will create huge demand on sharing Google or having or partnering with Google as an investor, No more stocks in size or numbers and Demand will grow on this stocks, Google will not rise capital or stocks, Google may lead the Tech cycle, it is like an factory producing well product, the production line offer 1000 peace, demand is for 1000 peace, Buissness Boss many not rise production line, since product is well, demand grow, production remain 1000, demand is for 2000, Stock perform better than others and it may reach 100.000 USD like Buffett case, Google also protect itself from speculation, downside which affect it negatively and allow no one to control and play with her listed company motivated by 2022 close of tech cycle and start of commodities to 2032 again.

Google cash protect her also from Capital rising, they even don't bought Versign, and what can do a domain name in their view the online empire.

If Google will have Merger and Acquisition during  market lows to but offline Media and online to be included in Google empire like General Electric of Industry, the value of this will targeted companies which can work better will bring Google to the Sky, Call options with longest expiration during each year to 2020 with top strikes will be good idea to invest on Google.

As per Mergers & Acquisition Suppliers to Google and their mini cap companies will be place to invest, and they may be take over target to Yahoo, more possible their competitor, competitor to Google suppliers, such us Internet software and tools small cap and their partners.

Spin-off of units like FreeScale case in internet or producing new units like Yahoo Japan will be also good place for large investors to invest.

To note that Syria may be a part or Reason for the 3 Global war since it is an Franco country in interest of Anglo-American to create the Anglo-America Middle East, Syria will be an obstacle for the peace in region doing to Global power balance between France and UK, France will refuse peace and will defend Syria againest Israel or USA and UK via Russia.