Roberto Jbili - FX OIL
Trading Signals
19-4-2009
An important event was
noted recently which
must be considered an
important key to markets
investments and Global
FX Trading Picks.
-The event is the USA
Admin to Give Iran Talk
chance over the Iranian
latest development in
Its nuclear activity
news and
Which was confirmed by
USA president Global
tour and talks with
Alliance.
The key to this event is
the Geo-Political
Stability provided to
build investor
confidence needed in
some markets and which
was translated later
into Gold large sell-off
as explained in my
analysis in EUR/USD.
OIL TRADING
A
disconnection of
Commodities family
valuation was noted in
both of Gold & Oil
prices & trading.
The reason was
Geo-political pricing
into Gold price, an
Geo-political Risk from
anticipated military
action over Iran
development of its
nuclear activity, this
reason saved the gold
from following the oil
in the drop:
*Oil was at 150 $ and
then dropped to 35$, if
we exclude geo-political
risk, gold real price is
around 400$ when oil
was at 35$, note that
Gold is Going Down.
**Geo-Political
stability is a signal to
sell gold and to move to
oil to double the price
of oil from 35 to 70$.
-I
call oil As an buying
signal from actual level
of 50 $ with target of
70$ levels.
-Oil will be bought in
USD, Oil will be held in
USD open positions, in
other words countries
with large profile of
oil consumption like EUR
& JPY will sell theri
currencies to Buy USD
and then with USD to buy
OIL.
OIL consumption
currencies will drop,
oil produces currencies
will rise.
Investors, Traders,
Governments, Will have
opened positions &
Consumption orders of
OIL in USD which will
remain UP.
-It is very hard to
estimate the Number of
hundred millions of
barrels which will be
bought in USD to bring
the OIL to 70$ levels,
but this will bring Euro
Down VS Dollar, It will
bring Gold down to buy
with its money OIL, it
is like moving money
from
(Info Tech & Semis) to
Oil Sector.
*Note that oil is traded
in USD.
*I expect that (Texas
Instruments & Motorola)
& (Cisco & Yahoo) &
(Dell & Hp) to indicate
a next quarter with less
consumer confidence in
spending in technology
products especially in
Cell phones since oil
direction will affect
the consumer spending.
-HP & DELL remain better
to invest doing to PC
upgrade, Cell phones has
less product profile to
attract consumer with
less innovation in Cell
phones products.
-Oil Rise will affect
tech stocks and stock
markets in short term on
the downside.
-I
call Yahoo to Be trading
in Short with target
below 10$ with Put
Optiones.
-I advise selling
currencies of countries
with large oil
consumption & to Buy
currencies of large
producers and USD.
-Oil Futures of May
delivery indicate a
signal from Republican
Eagles especially via
Mr. Deck Cheney that
Iran is Under
control and is under
special strategy focus.
Halliburton earnings
results will be a
leading indicator to oil
sector and buy signal
for oil.
-Bear Market rally in
commodity market will
make a bear market rally
in stock markets later
after a sharp drop and
reflection of oil rise.
A drop after the bear
market rally will
confirm that we are
moving from Commodity
cycle to Oil Cycle after
a large correction in
Tech Sector.
-A Rise in oil price
will be translated in a
downside in markets over
short term which will
promote carry trade
activity and sentiment,
relation between carry
trade and oil will be
noted in NZD/USD.
Currencies to trade:
GBP/USD
Very
attractive buying
opportunity confirmed by
Brent chart which
indicate in line GBP
direction.
A lot of large
speculators will observe
GBP value and will
translate this point
into GBP trading to the
top of 1.60 levels.
EUR/GBP
Who buy oil? the
countries which use
consume it more than it
produce, they will sell
their currencies in
favor of USD to buy oil,
EC countries is among
them this will bring
EUR/USD Down as
explained in my
analysis.
A trend of oil rise will
bring GBP on the rise
since it is an OIL
currency. I see EUR/GBP
around 0.81.
USD/NOK
Limited downside to 6.30
level.
USD/CAD
On the
Downside and I like to
buy CAD as an OIL
Currency VS USD as an
TECH currency, target is
around 1.11.
USD/NZD
Downside
to 0.52 level combained
with sharp market drop
and carry trade
sentiment.
Written
By Roberto Jbili on
19-4-2009
