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An Update to the Latest EUR/USD Analysis Located at http://www.forexinvestor.net/eurodollaranalysis02062009.htm
Every point explained in our analysis remain unchanged after last Trading Session drop of 1.2%, Euro is going up and I consider this move as buying opportunity, in fact according to our CAD/OIL analysis OIL is going to 85 level as first step, it is an Bear Market rally of commodities which lower the value of USD. Another Fundamental point will be exporters which can be affected by Euro High Rate, like Nokia may be less Affected by High Euro Rate, This was observed from latest Nokia report. This will limit Gov and ECB intervation possibility to sell Euro and bring it down, making Trading more classic and smart. Speculation View Speculation was made at large in last trading session, markets reacted well to bad news for the dollar, un-professional speculation focused on number of jobs as positive point, The fact is that Jobs and another key reports, the trading during it news announcement is speculative and opportunity to enter makets, like having good fundamnetal news for Dollar via this key reports, Dollar go down, When News is Bad Dollar Go UP. The news was Bad, the number jobs lost does not indicate jobs markets for long term, which more fundamentally to focus will un-employment rate coz jobs numbers will be collected to create the rate. The rate is up, number of jobs can be revised higher, dollar during Jobs reports announcement was in the upside, but the un-proffissional speculation bringed it down. The signal for this was some trades interventions between speculators & traders to lower Euro to below 1.40 to open the case to above 1.50. As we Return to the Fundamental Basis of which we valued Nokia exports / USD Index & Euro / USD Ratio That is not affected by Euro Higher rate Vs Motorola Which sell in USD, I note this to reach the consumer point, The consumer point is related to Oil price, Oil price was very well analyzed in our CAD analysis that it will reach 88 $ with possible test of 100 $ During August. On EURO USD case the relation is between EURO Consumer & USD Cosnumer via EURO exportrs to USA and USA exports to EUROPE, The relation is notable when price of Oil is down on AVG in comparison with European Consumer spending, The cheap Oil will make the European Consumer with more money, this money will be used to buy an Ipod or a new Laptop or a lot of technology products including hardware and Software like Windows, Made in or via USA, all this products are in USD based and European and can be Bought by USD, European Importers will increase the imports for the American tech products, since Cheap Oil created Demand for the tech products, The import orders to buy Tech Products will be in USD, they will sell EURO Vs USD to pay for the tech products, EURO will go Down Dollar Up, Reason is Cheap Oil. Oil Is High, Tech Exports from USA will affect consumer spending, USD is Low, doing to less activity on USD and less exports from USA, this explain relation between stock market and USD, Usually Stock markets must be down when USD is Down since USD is Down for Less USA exports, this indicate why Dell for example is a global leader indicator for USD direction, I mean not actual stock market Cycle of Commodities, I mean next cycle which Will bring EURO/ USD to 0.81, The actual situation is on opposite side since we are in opposite cycle today when Dollar is Up USA Markets is Down, watch Commodities cycle Vs Stock Markets Dow at 14.000 and USD at low of 1.60 vs. USD on the 2 part of Commodities Cycle, the leaders play different Bear Commodities cycle even if they will have an rally will command again same methods of First bull Commodities cycle, Dow is going up Dollar is Going Down, in other words dollar was down when Dow at 14.000 points, Dollar will again down coz Dow is going to test 10.500 The Command in Bear market rally of Commodities ask for conditions of Bull market of Commodities, when this rally end the Command of 2 part of Commodities cycle will be USD UP since stock market will be Down doing to Oil and Oil Sector companies. In the Next Cycle when it will be the Technology one, USD will perform in line with Stock markets as USA exports start, USD will be UP in line with Dell Stock Price and Philadelphia semiconductor index which is lead by Intel, Microsoft, and the Titan of the information technology like Yahoo and Google. Dell Price Chart in the upside indicate Dollar in the upside and bull tech stock markets driven by USA exports with strong trade balance, When I heard that Mr. Mike Dell returned to Dell I was convinced that Dell will triple in price, Mr. Dell will not return if he he is not confidence that has the ability to make up the company. Today USD is in a situation of Importer not Exporter coz we are in Commodities cycle, and USA is importer of Commodities, Global commodities Cycle can take 10 years, prepared 2 at start 6 and 2 at End. Has 2 parts 1 strong with Oil at 150 and correction like when oil was at 50, and 35 with Bear rally to 100, It was talk that Oil will not be below 50$ again, today Oil will not pass 100 $ again, Oil will be going to below 20 USD, from 100. But give Markets Time to do It, the traders Just are buying and taking a deep breath or a break or rest. This is not a Garden, This is Capital Markets, Who are going to sell the Oil at 67$? the traders just bought it, another fellow speculators will enter building toghter the Pattern to the upside one after one like an Art Showing how Classic and Refined is the Oil trading and drawing Oil patterns inside Charts. Again, Price and Direction of Oil, USD Index which include EURO can be noted from Large tech exporters in USA TO Europe and each currency via her country, EX USA EXports to NewZealand will decide USD/NZD rate, USA is Technology based Currency or Export Currency affected in first place by Trade balance doing to this reasons. CAD, By Oil, Japan same of USA but via Electronic products like TV and Sony (USA PC Hard and Soft Ware), then each country by itds main exports which affect her Won GDP like USA Case via Tech products. This fundamental Key will affect EUR/USD by 15 to 20%. We expect next Trade Balance to Drive Euro UP, signaling USA that we are in Bear market of Commodities, we are not moved to the Technology Cycle, The Cycle must have Bull and Bear, Each Bull & Bear has Rally, Bear Market Rally inside Bear market to correct pattern to the downside or to empower it, and Bull Market Correction, Correction to the pattern to empower it to the upside. WE are in the commodities cycle, we Taked the Bull part with Oil to 150, Now we are the 2 part on the Bear Part with Oil at 30, there will be here some bear markets rally (2) in same amount of Bull markets Coreection same patterns will repeat itself as noted in the Modern ForexInvestor.Net Fundamental Timing indicator. After the Bear Markets rally end we can move to Bull Tech Cycle, possible in 2010 to 2011, Commodities cycle will return in 2021-2022, this will provide Stock market rally from 2011 to 2021 in same amount of the rally from 1990-91 to 2000-2001.
Every point explained in our analysis remain unchanged, All of us got confirmed by the close below 1.40 at 1.3960 that Euro is Going high, dont forget to read again the analysis located at http://www.forexinvestor.net/eurodollaranalysis02062009.htm
Dow Jones rally may be above 10.500 from 10.000 Oil Rally may Be above 85 $ from 75$ EURO/USD first pattern may be to above 1.52, dont foreget to read again the analysis located at http://www.forexinvestor.net/eurodollaranalysis02062009.htm
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