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I can desrcribe an currency like an bank account number or like an IBAN instead of describing it like many other do like an banknotes papers. 2 currencies like the USD VS CAD, according to above explination became 2 bank accounts, or 1 bank account vs another bank account, the stronger vs the other is by the more value of an bank account vs the another one. The more value of each bank account will be the money held in each bank account, in our case the money is the value of the resources which value the currency like the oil in the CAD example and the Technology exports in the USD example. Another experts consider that the main value of the currency is by the gold amount put to print money, it is, but the effect is less and less than above explained fundamental example which explain that the value of the CAD bank account will be resources value or GDP, like the oil, actual oil price and future development of Oil price, the future of this nresources in price and development, Canada is affected by Oil since it is 2 largest oil reserve country, and Oil price are very sensative to the CAD, more value to the oil will be more money or value to the bank account, like pricing 20% when we value the CAD by actual price of crude and another 20% of future price. In Canada case the thw first 20% will be affected also by actual oil production and the 2 by future oil production. It is like an Oil producer which the Oil production decide the value of this poducer and future reserves from where it export the Oil decide the another mini part of the value, like XOM or CVX. When we value the CAD we must take into considration what is afecting Oil price to estimate how money can be added into the bank account, the CAD is not a trader with bank account, it is just an bank account which main value is affected by Global direction of Oil. If you will take a look right now on the technical analysis insight then on the pattern of the Chart A & the pattern on the Chart B which is the same pattern, then if we take a look on the monthly chart where I indicate the CAD direction, it will show us the Oil is going to 88$ after 75$ then a possible test of 100$ during August. The performance of oil in 1st half will be a good indicator of the performance in 2 half. Valuing Oil to Value CAD Oil/CAD: In Fact indicating Oil direction from CAD exchange rate, fom CAD past performance or technial performance which is an reflection of Fundamntal basis, this fundamental basis or better described (Reasons) make same traders to buy the same currency in same situation, Market Makes and large traders,this create patterns inside charts which will be repeated again from point of Fundamental view, having same reasons which make players to buy currencies enable us to observe the pattern direction from past patterns created in past similar fundamnetal basis or reasons, this is called Non speculative Classic Trading, it is right currency investing. Another point to inicate Oil price, is Users of Oil such us countries and Companies like chemicals companies which understanbd their needs and try to catch the Oil at best possible price. The direction of the Chemicals companies which thier business (via above patterns example) can indicate 2-5% of Oil direction. Right Now, Valutaion of things not Macro-Economic basis decide are deciding the Oil price for the moment. Example: When an house price on AVG is 1 Million Dollar and offered at real estate maket for 400 K, Value will create buying demand, this demand will bring the houses price form 400 K to stable level, the Buying demand will be created by buyers, this buyers will not sell the houses if there will be no No basis to affect the Value of the houses which made them to but at 400§K Oil was an house at 40$, undervalued, right now it is going to have right value and above right value. From This Green Note, We can observe that No-Macro-Economic facotrs such us Demand-Supply or GDP needs of Globe in line with actual Marco-Conditions which is taked by USA into considration, No Macro Factors is affecting Oil price, It is the Value of things Created by traders give us opportunities to make serious money Macro Conditions is affecting Oil by 20%. Reak Value by 80%. An important thing which affect the Value is the Risk. Same traders which play after the Zero Traders, which helped Oil to 35$ will pump again Oil to 100$, this will be speculation, But the Key facor which is noted will be NON WAR situation on Iran which help to give the Oil the real value in comparison with another consumer basis like housing, the Value may be around 70$, Speculation will pump Oil to 100$, they does not understand that there is cars an cars need Oil, But also some will preffer to walk instead to buy Oil. The NON WAR Situation When war start price of Oil will be Down, Gerogia War and USA Test to Russia on Intervation in Case of Israelian US backed strike made Oil at 35$ Oil Traders Like to price future and they are close to politics, Like Mr. Busch and Mr. Cheney and Rest of Eagles. When War officialy Start Indexes go up like 2003 Iraq War. Based on the Technical Insight explained here, we rotate situations which Bring us to uderstand that there is No Geo-Political Risk in Real Mean Coz simply Oil is UP and will be down only when War of Iran Start. It is opposite of things. This bring us to another conclusion which is Indicating future Political events from Oil price, We explainded that Oil downs was based on Iran war news that it will Start after Georgia Was by End of 2008, here we note that we can indicate political events via Action of Oil buyers explained at Charts in the past which can be made again. Also for the 1St note when we converted the situations to opposite of things is an easy thing. Oil From 150 $ TO 35 $ & Georgia War & development of Iran Nuke program mean hig war possibilty Oil From 35$ TO 75$ TO 100$ & Korea Test mean No War. Nerves was reflected to be priced into Tests to calm. When Geo Risk Does Not Exist USD will be going Down, USA protect the GreenBack By Pentagon Global projects. You must not be surprised If Euro will test 1.70, The non War Situation will made Wall Street Angry they will destory the USD for the Jew state Via London Brains. Here we return also to ast point which is value of things when we exaplined the Oil Value above, In fact when It came to value of things it came to Gold Relation on Gold Via Politics GOLD & UK & IRAN = BRENT & USD & ISRAEL or Money & Politics & Iraq = BRENT & USD & ISRAEL. IRAQ past perfromance indicated US that UK when Sold Gold reserves in 2003 and they control the Gold and know that Gold is going up, Gold was for sell at 350$, this mean that the Iraq war was not for money or Oil or Gold, It was an refined action from UK to show that the war will not be form Money and USA loses confirmed the view, It was also not for democracy it was for Globa leadership and Gain control again on past UK colonials. Gold Mean Politics, indicating Oil price stability from Gold, Price stability mean also Geo Risk Stability, This mean Gold is going down not UP. This is also global Classic basis signals to ensure global stability. Global stability make speculators Calm and give thigs real value like Oil Case. Gold real value will be inidcate Oil real Vaule, Giving Oil real Value will give Gold after, the real value, it also will indicate actual political map developments in a classic way. This points, like currencies will be like the Technical insight section which bring us to uderstand that Currencies future developments and directions and everything can be obtained by the Forex Investor Fundamnetal Timing indicatror via opposite of things or converting and rotating past patterns. Example Chart of Gold Pattern roatated vs Chart of Oil. CAD also can indicate with above points Gold price via charts and opposite of things. As we noted Calm investors will give everything real value since no war or Real Geo Risk, The test of Iran made price of Oil UP coz there is no War no Geo-Political risk Departing Oil Value fom Gold. Revalue case is like 2 houses, First house real value is 1000 K, is sold for 2000 K, The 2 house real value is 1000K is sold for 1000K. Value will make the first house price at same 2 house price via the same basis which value the second house. What make the first house value at 1000K will make the seond house also at 1000K. Values will meet at one point, Gold again as explained in my First analysis nr.1 must be departed from Oil value, When Dow was at record high in 2000 the Gold was at 270$. We valued Gold at market actions and short term movments, Commodoties traders including Gold traders hold the Gold for a long term, I expected before that next ceycel will be lead by Nasdaq record high moving from commodities cycle to technology cycle, this will give companies more value and will give Gold also more value. That having into considration that this record high will strat to occour after ran War via some bankruptices. It is very hard to estimate if there will be a war in the next 2 years, Since Iran developed the Nuke program without militry action from USA or Israel whih was wiely expected in 2008 end, by us in 2011. The non war situation will create another situation in which Dollar became weak, See performace of Dollar after Iraq War end which was on the downside after geo-risk stability not reflected directly into Gold. The non war, Large traders does not invest and hold cash, no credit for people to move economy, like givinng you a loan to buy a house, then the loan will move insurance, insurance will move its investments, the house will need construnction materials and commodities, commodoties need another materials, bank will invest from the profit of your loan into another areas...and so on... No loan, No Economy activity = Resecion = No demand for USD = Another Currencies UP = Global Resecion, at first place USA Economy ill to lead another = Commodities UP = Global Crises = Consumer Spending ill =Demand for companies products Weak = Less Taxes = Less State Income = Less Governamet Spending Budget on Ministries = war To Bring money and taxes to spend on Ministries and Economy, spend to voind poverty. I heared before that trader and Governamet does not exist , State my spend from Taxes, State cant be a traders holding non moderniozaied state companies. This explain Why USA is successfull as it make her reveune from Taxes, at another part Explain That USA eneimeis which has oppositie strategies does not made wars, but they have failed economies and nations. The USA Army played the most important role in Global inovations, and the Brain behined it which is UK in line With USA ill nevery born like it again. The Idea that value of Dow is Gold based is Old Idea backed to the age of empiers, when things was exchanged with Gold, Dow inside of it represent everything from Pringles to GM Cars to IBM Laptop to MCDonalds, to Pharma products, The Dow instutions can be exchnaged with Gold, Gold Must be in Line developed with the Dow price this make a call for Gold at 2000. But When Nasdaq was at past record Gold was below 300! As we noted Calm investors will give everything real value since no war or Real Geo Risk, The test of Iran made price of Oil UP coz there is no War no Geo-Political risk as carefully must read analysis. The Idea that value of Dow is Gold based is Old Idea backed to the age of empiers, when things was exchanged with Gold, Dow Jones Industrial 30 which contain everything inside it from the laptop to the car of gm to the pharma products to mcdonalds, pringles of PG and many other things, is Nr.1 indicators of things value which price inflation also, Dow was at 830 in 1970 today is traded x10 times at 8320, gold was at 38 $, today is traded 26 X times around 1000 $. in 2000 when speculation on net bubble gave stock markets lead by Nasdaq an records high strating from stocks at 1000 which dropped to 2 dollars laters, Gold Was at 266 $. Even 11 septmber attacks gave nothing to Gold, It was an real indicator that value will go down, today gold price make me believe that my analysis on new Nasdaq record high are in place to be built. Gold is Political reflection more than inflation as it was not reflecting the Dow high in Tech Boom back to 2000, politics is UK, there is some key events which we can from it catch the value of things vs gold like WorldCom bankruptcy which drove the Iraq war and Lehman Brothers which was About to drive Iran War anf later CitiBank GM, and some selected names in some industries, this bankruptcies open the case for Global conflicts it may be Nuclear based. Gold will be held not for value for Geo-Risk, Gold UP = Stocks down. Dow-Gold Relation A-The Avg price of Gold from 1970 to 2008 was 385 $. (Gold today is up 160% or 2.5 times from this Avg) B-The Avg Price of Dow from 1970 to 2088 was 4816 points (If we value Things by Gold, and Dow indicator of things the dow real value will be 2.5 times or 160% higher from the Historical Avg of 4816 which will be 12000 points). C-Things value must take time to transfer to another things, value of things in finance, real estate is transfered at this minutes to commodities, So the value decided to be in commodities. Recently Gold Reached 670 $ or 1.7 times more than histroical avg Dow real value was at 8200 or 1.7 time from historical Dow Avg of 4816, it reached it recently, Gold was up again, but for the 2009 Gold moving avg is 900 $ or 2.3 times more than the historical avg of 385, on Dow 2.3 times of the historical 4816 mean around 11.000 D-Based on market fundamental basis, the Development of stock market movments will be on the downside based on Finance (credit based) Sector, Real Estate, and Even commodities. Bear market rally will finish at dow 10 to 11.000, Oil will drop from 88 to 100 $ level Also, The Dow based on Non War situation and above 2 sectors effect will be going to an Avg between 4230 point & 6230 Point which will be 5275, this will be 1.1 X times from historical Avg of 4816 which will reflect Gold at 423 $ since it will be 1.1 X time from Historical Gold Avg of 385. Gold In above methods is Overvalued, It will reach the level of 423 with Iran War, When the War will Start the Gold will be destroyed. CAD LONG TERM The Longer Term for CAD will Be 1.50 to 1.60 Since the value of Oil Reserves composed from Gold and Commodities sector as a whole movments cycle to cycle, commodities to Tech, The longer term will be based that the value of the CAD bank account which is the Oil reserves will be less, Oil may avg 20 levels when Iran War Strat. Fundamentals Drawed in Charts can be noted as, The Chart of Euro is the Same of CAD, Euro was up from 0.85 to 1.60 - Cad Was Down from 1.50 to 0.95 A-Cad was up Up doing to oil high and more moeny into the account. B-Euro was up and sustained by same metrics, little influenced by the term of Gold Reserves Ratio, Which indicate that an Currency Value is composed from Gold Value anmd from Gold Amount and reserves held by each country. For Example Currency A Price is 10 = Has 1000 Once of Gold in Reserves = Price of Gold UP 50% = Price of Gold upside will be priced into Currency A Exchange rate bringing it higher not by 50% but with an amount which share the value of currency with at least 20%. The Gold price to the Upside played a Role in Euro Upside to 1.60, When Gold Dropped from record to 670, Euro Dropped to 1.23, this will be shared also by Markets downside. The Gold return to below the public tender of 2003 by UK with Iran War and Nasdaq record high building in a situation similar to the boom of 2000 mean that wealths will be created at large by the technology sector selected investments, this confirm that UK does not lose money ( since gold was up after thye tender) it confirm the UK tactic well known as the long term. the pound has the right reason to not join Euro Area. European countries holders of large Gold reserves or countries which bought metals will suffer, Germany Italy Frace and Russia or the Franco-Roman Age of Empires Dreamers of Gold Holders. It is the dream of controling the globe and controling the Gold like an failed Speculator use Terror to do it, like Oil case by Russia VS Large Traders like Red Knight which control the copper everywhere buying future prodcution and putting it price bu fundamental and technical basis, I am talking about the Demand-Supply factor knowing the second which the costumer (industrial) will ask about copper from reasons of the contracts(supply) which make this (demand). Who will buy all this Gold? UK will not do I am wonder about another tender by USA, and how demand will be created after Iran War? all investors will have the money in technology, Gold also must be sold after production. Pound has the Brent and Metals to replace the Gold from above Gold reserve/Currency Price Ratio. I would like finally to repeat the same words again, if Value of things vs Gold price how much is priced a thing in USD and how much is Gold Price in 1970 and now. Dow Jones is largest indicator of things in the Globe, it contain everything from Pringles to IBM laptops to GM cars to Pharma needs via instiuions their value or how much they are valued VS Gold after and before can indicate real value of Gold,developments of the 2 examples from 1970 to right now. Gold price is an indicator to Dow direction, Dow is an Indicator for Gold price will be destroyed when Iran War Will Start, Dow will Go Down after the Bear Market Rally the Gold will Go Down again opening the Case for USD Rally again.
As we see that the Blue pattern noted in chart part 1 (A) is the same pattern in chart part 2 (B), in the chart part 1 it is rotatated to represent very close short term trading via the Forex Investor method called the Modern Fundamnetal Timing Indicator which roatate patterns of Charts repeateit self roatated in very close short term trading doing to the change of same basis which made it up.
Example: When Same Fundamental Reason of Pattern Rise change to opposite situation, we rotate or make the pattern in opposite way. For example if a pattern in a chart show an rise of 10% in the USD/CAD backed by Oil rise or doing to Oil rise, then the CAD start to drop doing to the fall in oil price, we return to the same pattern of Oil rise, we rotate it and make it in opposite way to obtain since Oil is in opposite situaiton, after rotate we obtain the detailed pattern direction to trade the same pattern on succesful speculative short term basis. Charts Explination The Blue marked pattern show in A chart and B is the same in the B chart it show the USD up againest the CAD, from 1.03 to 1.30 during Sep to Oct 2008. The reason for the CAD drop is the drop in Oil price in same period since CAD is an Oil currency valued and priced , Canada contain 2 largest Oil reserve. Oil lost more than third of his value at same period which was priced into CAD also As Canada Has little money from Oil or Canada Oil reserves value is less, the oil reserve value is shown on all Canadian Bankpot it has little value to obtain with it another currency since it became less wealthly backed. The Rose Chart Shown on Chart B start is Shown drop of the USD againest the CAD, Reason is Gain in Oil from 35 to 67 Usual traders study oil direction to indicate the pattern direction, Since patterns repeat itself like an Medical Chart of a Currency Heart, we repeat to same pattern oin Blue which was backed by oil fall we convert he chart to opposite, we see all the pattern future direction and predict oil Direction. The Forex Investor Modern Fundamental Timing Indicator
CAD is going to test the 1.03 level, it is going directly to 1.06, Oil from the blue rotated pattern indicate an rise to above 75 to be in line with CAD value. The Medium Term Show an downfall for the USD againest the CAD to 1.01 to 1.03 Area then a rise fot the USD to 1.06 which will be Followed by a down again to 0.95 level even to 090 ion line with oil price development, this Can be confirmed Also for the medium term by the monthly Chart. Downfall to this level could be sustained by Oil Rally to 88$ even test of 100 USD in August. Note The Modern Fundamental Indicators can be used also in inudstries vs others. In commodoties vs others. Predict polticial actions or main Global events, for example Assignation of Mr. Harriri and Ms. Buhtoo.
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