DON'T FORGET TO CHECK ROBERTO JBILI MARKET TIMING INDICATOR 

FOR FULL CURRENCY MARKETS ANALYSIS PLEASE TAKE A LOOK AT OUR ANALYSIS SECTION HERE

As all of us noted in our past analysis, especially the USD /CAD located at our analysis section, that the Oil will be an important indicator for the medium term currency market direction since we are in commodity cycle, more exactly bear market rally of commodity cycle activity.

As we noted that each economic cycle has 2 parts, First part is bull market, Second part is bear market, each part has ups and down, in first part correction happen to empower the uptrend, in 2 part rally happen to give a breath to the downside.

This morning, we are in bear market rally of commodity cycle or 1 st step from 2 of bear market as a whole or bear market in commodities, The rally or the bear market rally happen with the basis of each economic cycle, in our case the Oil and the rest of commodities, which their stocks will push market higher leading stock markets to the upside like Exxon Mobile, Halliburton, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Ashanti Gold,....Etc, in our case the activity of this stocks will push the do to 10.500 - 11.000 level.

COMMODITIES & OIL UP, STOCKS UP, Carry trade will be in place to decide some currencies direction, the noted points will bring us to the main point that Main carry Trade Currency which is the JPY will be going down, at same time, the Carry trade currencies of opposite play against JPY (The currencies which traders sell the JPY which is low interest rate and buy them coz they have higher interest rate) this currencies will be going up, Like New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar, Brazil Real, Poland Zolty, Hungary Forint, Icelandic Krona, Turkey Lira and where exist High inteste rates in this world, Currencies of countries which offer high interest rates, againest currencies which offer low interest rates like JPY & CHF as main play and currencies of countries offer lowest interest rates.

At same Time We Buy Currencies of OIL & COMMODITIES producers like Norway Krone, Brazil Real Again, Canada Dollar, British Pound, Mexico Peso, Australia Dollar, South Africa Rand & currencies of countries which produce and hold reserves of Metals including Gold, Oil, Gas and Energy and related commodities listed in CME.

This Currencies to buy against Currencies of Countries which USE or are poor in Commodities coz they will Sell their currencies to buy currencies of Commodities producers, Like largest oil importers and largest exporters like USA and China, Example is Japan which is 2 Largest Economy will sell Yen to Buy Oil from Canada, the JPY will Go Down against Canada Dollar of Oil.

If I return to the first note in my research, The confirmation that we are just in weak economy bear market rally or Economy breath in stock market and that we are in first stage of Bear Cycle will be Weak Economic reports which confirm weak economy, and that markets are supported by re-value of Commodities.

If you take a look at Roberto Jbili Market timing indicator or the Fundamental analysis system of Timing, you will have the confirmation that Past Economic reports of First Correction of Bull market (commodities cycle 2003)

this reports will reported again in opposite way since we are in First Rally of Bear Market or 2 part of Commodity cycle, this reports will be reported again in opposite way, so we have the right to rotate the pattern of that time back 5 years to obtain today pattern development.

One of them will be consumer confidence which will came in the next 2-3 reports Strong!

It will came strong coz it was Weak when the report was in first bull market correction.

The consumer confidence to spend is little improvement to the downside, when before it was little affected in downside going to the upside.

Reports of today will be opposite of that mentioned of yesterday doing to opposite situations from point of economic view in which are drawen in Currency Charts, We have the right to have that pattern and convert it to see her development in that time, to obtain in a rotate situation the direction and development of today charts.

MARKET PLAY

JPY

Cosnumer confidence in USA will show That Global weak demand for electronics is imporving and Japan exports imporved supporting Nokia case That Euro Exports has not been affected by Euro Exchange rate and via Demand for Cellphones, in other words this will make European Governaments support Euro High level via at least no intervention to buy Euro.

The Oil price in latest activity coming from Lows show this kind of demand from Japan doing to industrial demand which will continue, JPY will be sold in favor for Commodities and oil producers to buy oil from them, the stock makets rally lead by Commodities and Oil will support Carry trade activity with Dow to 10500.

The oil when it will reach high, the consumer will wake up in Bear Market and will stop spending, Industrial activity will be down again, Oil from 100 to 20 $ consumer confidence again down with this trend, and even with Oil lows, this is consumer physical view to wallet, there will no remain money for tech products from Oil savings, and even if it will be the money is preffered to remain in wallet and finally the governaments will gt it from your wallet via bills and different things.

Here we return to past patterns explained in blue above, pattern of 1 st bull market correction and pattern of 1 st bear market rally, we rotate pattern of 1st bull market rally to obtain performance of pattern of the 1st bear market rally, same traders will buy and sell again, when they bought ion 1 st pattern in bull market correction they will sell in 1st bear market rally via same conditions and same players and activity.

This bring us to OIL UP JPY DOWN, and OIL DOWN JPY UP, JPY WILL GO UP WHEN OIL WILL DROP FROM 100 US, and this confirm the connection between carry trade and Oil and JPY.

In Numbers:

USD / JPY Target is 111 level Via Different Look for Short Term.

AUD / JPY Target is 88 level Via Different Look for Short Term.

OIL Target is 100 $ level Test After passing the 88 $, Please check Fundamental Value basis

NZD / USD Target is 0.72-0.75 levels.

NOK / JPY Target is 19 level.

BRL / CHF Target is 0.60 level.

TRY / JPY Target is 19 level.